So as i said in my earlier post from this morning, my project for my 'Elections and Participation' course at Rutgers this semester was to predict the voter turnout rate and who will win in Somerset County (and with what proportion).
I just submitted our prediction, and we predict a tight race between Christie and Corzine in Somerset County, with the following percentages:
Jon Corzine - 47%
Chris Christie - 45%
Chris Daggett - 8%
for the voter turnout aspect, we predict: around a 55% turnout rate of the REGISTERED voters (not voting age population). There are 193,345 registered voters right now in Somerset county, so 55% of that would be: 106,340.
I'll update later in the week with our explanation for the basis of our prediction as i'm still organizing all of our information. Or perhaps when i take a look at the actual results for comparison. I forgot to mention in the earlier post that that is also part of our assignment. When we present next week, we also have to include the actual results, and how much the actual results varied from our predictions and possible reasons and whatnot. So at this point, our assignment is only partly over.
This was (is) definitely a fun, interesting (and hard!) assignment, and I'm quite anxious to see the results tomorrow.
On a general state level prediction, i think Corzine will end up winning (but with a very small margin) the election.
again, a quick reminder : don't forget to go out and vote tomorrow!
UPDATE (7:45 AM on 11/03/09): the grad student that teaches our course sent out the overall predictions from our class, summing up all the counties. Here's the data:
The class expects to see approximately 2,643,282 votes tomorrow (51% of registered voters) and the final tally to divide statewide: Corzine: 45.95% of the vote Christie: 41.65% of the vote Daggett: 6.21% of the vote
It'll be interesting to see how close we got as a class - as political science students!
Based on an anonymous class vote taken in class yesterday: 80% expect Corzine to win the election 20% expect Christie to win the election
And: 65% would vote for Corzine 20% would vote for Christie 14% would vote for Daggett 1% would vote for Evgeni Malkin (i asked my brother who this was.... because i had no idea... and it's apparently a hockey player).
just a friendly reminder that TOMORROW is Election Day!
Don't forget to vote and remind your friends and family to do the same. Just because it is not a presidential election does not mean it is not important for you to cast your votes!
I am definitely interested in what happens in the Governor's election here in New Jersey, and it's implications! To make things even more interesting, my project for my 'Elections and Participation' class is to actually predict the voter turnout and who will win in the governor's election, and with what proportion. We were divided into groups, and our group has to predict for Somerset County, New Jersey.
I don't know how many people get to say that... or when i will ever get the chance to meet even ONE other president, but the last two days have been amazing for someone like me who LOVES politics and who is such a big fan of Barack Obama!
by the way, i'm going to throw in the past two days in one HUMONGOUS post because otherwise, one or the other would never get done... as i've been getting about one post done per month for the last few months. I have a post that i barely started two weeks ago still sitting in my drafts that i just haven't had time to write out! :( hopefully, soon... because i definitely want to get it done.
Anyhow, after being hesitant for a few days whether i was even going to attend the political rally where Bill Clinton was coming to rally for Corzine at my own school (Rutgers) because of a long and tiring day, i did end up going right after class... and i had a great time. The waiting line was decently long by the time we got there, and soon it had become much much longer! One thing that surprised me was there were no security checks (considering a former president was going to be present).
I know my brother Ayaz and i were discussing this, and many others feel the same way... but those rallying for Corzine seem to be doing a better job for him than Corzine is himself. and of course, Clinton is a great speaker as it is.
On a sidenote, after the event my brother and I met a reporter/fellow tweep (one uses twitter) Mike Memoli and it was so interesting to meet someone you communicate with online! We saw and talked with him at the Clinton/Corzine and the Obama/Corzine event (and met his sister and nephew there too).
Until attending the Clinton/Corzine rally, i was 100 percent sure that i was absolutely not going to be attending the Obama/Corzine rally the following day at FDU because of work, school work, and whatnot. But then, after the Clinton/Corzine rally...i realized no matter how much else was going... they could all take a back seat, because who knows when i would get such an amazing opportunity again in my life (or if i would ever!).
Luckily, i have no classes on Wednesday and was able to get someone to cover my shift at work on campus. I am SO SO SO glad i convinced myself to go!
Ayaz and I left home around 12ish (it was about 40 - 50 minute drive without traffic to get to Farleigh Dickinson University) and doors opened at 3 PM. We got there around 1:15ish i would say, and somehow, there were no real lines of any sorts and we were lucky enough to get to the front of the line!! To think that i wasn't even going to go, and then i ended up in the front row!!! (Can you tell how great of a time i had? :) )
One of the many speakers before we finally hear from Obama, was freeholder/reverend Vernon Walton (the first African-American to serve as a Bergen County Freeholder). He was a great speaker and he was amazing at getting the crowd going and was definitely a tough act to follow. he was probably my favorite speaker, aside from Obama of course, from last night.
Oh, and a last minute addition to the rally was Caroline Kennedy. most of the crowd had no idea she was also going to be one of the notable speakers that we would witness, but my brother and i got a heads-up from the reporter Mike Memoli that we follow on twitter. While Weinburg teased the unknowing audience about the "she" that was about to speak, we already knew all thanks to technology. :)
Caroline Kennedy received a much deserved standing ovation. Like so many others, I've had a natural interest in the Kennedy family and the tragedies that have struck their family. and no matter what your political philosophies are, Caroline Kennedy comes of as "real" and comes off to be just one of us. Furthermore, what Ted Kennedy did throughout his life for healthcare was amazing, and hopefully the fight will continue.
It's scary/sad to think of how many people are not covered by health insurance... and how many of those people are little helpless kids! Education and Healthcare issues are two of the main ones that i am especially concerned with. It's nice to hear the politicians hear about what "they are going to do", but it'll be even nicer to see some action being taken.
I'm no huge fan of Corzine (i haven't researched him enough to be one) but some of the things Christie is against, is so hard to believe! I can't believe anyone would be against things such as having a 2 day hospital stay for new mothers, having mandated mammograms, and funding for education. If we elect Christie, that's taking some major steps backwards. Christie wants to make it not mandatory for healthcare insurance providers to cover mammograms!!!! can you believe that?? who could be against such things! especially when breast cancer is one of the leading causes of death for females!!! not only that, but Christie also wants to cut funding for early education... because he thinks preschool is "babysitting". can you hear my frustration??
Anyways, getting back to the rally, talking about Caroline Kennedy reminds me of one of the funny moment as we waited for the "real" speeches. one of the secret service agents brought out a black portfolio to the podium that i am assuming was carrying Obama's speech and the crowd was so anxious, that the secret service agent got a huge ovation from the crowd for simply bringing the portfolio out to the podium and walk back to the back area. the agent just smiled, shook his head, and headed back out. The pretty cool DJ promoted a second wave of cheers/applause from the crowd for him too. :)
here's Caroline's speech:
Loretta Weinberg spoke before Caroline Kennedy and Jon Corzine spoke after Caroline Kennedy. Weinberg's speech was the same as the one from the night before at Rutgers. Corzine started off by saying he'll keep his speech short because he knew the real reason we were all here was to listen to Obama. Obama, of course, spoke last. i think one of the best techniques Corzine has been doing lately is linking Christie to Palin - that's ingenious right there and anyone with half a brain will negate them. the latest polls (from today) show Corzine leading by a three point margin (very small)... but this is the first time he's been leading for a while. all of the powerful speakers this week have definitely helped Corzine, undoubtedly.
by the way, did you guys know Corzine's mom is a registered republican?? i had no idea until Corzine mentioned that yesterday!
Obama came out to a loud and cheering audience, of course... and the atmosphere was amazing. and it only got better as Obama spoke. I've said it many times before - Obama is a great, inspirational, and eloquent speaker... and even more so in person! Ayaz and i were so lucky to meet him from so close up, and shake hands with him! I truly believe he has the potential to make a big difference for the country.
I've heard the "fired up" story many times before, but i heard it again last night live as Obama ended with the story (and i was wearing my 'fired up' shirt too!). it's one of those things that never get old. Obama said the moral of the "fired up" story was that "one voice can change a room...and if can change a room it can change a city... and if it can change a city, it can change a state...and if it can change a state, then it can change a country...". Obama, intelligently, connected this with urging each of us individually to go out there and knock on some doors, call some people, get our friends/family/neighbors out to vote, etc because we could make the difference.
this next image shows just how close we got:
also, during Obama's speech... near the center in the front row alone we had three girls "faint" in the same general section. i found that really weird, but the secret service just came in and carried each of the girls out as it happened.
here's obama's speech btw:
I know i would have regretted it later had i not gone to either of the events (ESPECIALLY the Obama event)! This is a pretty long post as it is, but i'll probably add more thoughts to this as i remember more things.
These past two days have been pretty amazing... and one of those things i'll remember forever!
UPDATE: this post is as long as a 5 page essay! to think how productive i could have been school-wise today! :( :)
So i've been MIA from blogging recently (for like a month!), but that's because a lot has happened (and has been happening) that has been keeping me quite busy!!
Anyhow, i took my LSATs this morning! The morning started off rough with having low air pressure in one of the tires of the car... and when i eventually got to the building where my exam was... there's a note telling us to go to a completely different building. I mean i go to Rutgers, so getting to the other building wasn't such a big deal for me... but for everyone that came to take the LSATs at Rutgers but doesn't actually go to Rutgers... it was a challenge! One kid, candidly, suggested it was actually a practice logic game to help our brains focus :). Thank goodness i left early to leave ample leeway time.
I've been sick since monday, so i didn't get too much studying done in the week leading up to, but i hope i did fine. If not, i can always retake them in December... i hope i don't have to though! I HATE being sick ( i KNOW no one likes being sick!), and this constant weather change is driving me crazy... and is definitely the root of me being sick.
On another note, i began my senior year of college early this month! I can't believe i am a senior in college... where has the time gone?! I remember my first day of school ever, starting second grade in canada once we moved there, then seventh grade when i moved to new jersey, starting high school, then college... and now it's almost over! I really wish it would slow down a little! To think that in May, i will be a college graduate is AMAZING and weird!
All of this, of course, means that i have started looking at law schools and have began the process that goes along with it (letters of recommendations and whatnot), which has been a little nerve-wracking. All of it seems so surreal.
Oh, and Rutgers Football season is well underway as well! I've only been to one of the games so far... and haven't really been following it to well this year because of the time constraint, but it's still been fun when i do get the chance. Hopefully i'll get a chance to go to a couple of more games this season... especially since it's the last year i'll be a student here.
"For all those whose cares have been our concern, the work goes on, the cause endures, the hope still lives and the dream shall never die." -- Senator Ted Kennedy, 1932-2009
Around 1:30 A.M. this morning, i was suprised and deeply saddened to receive "breaking news" text messages from several different news organizations alerting me that Edward Kennedy had passed away due to brain cancer at the age of 77... fifteen short months after the diagnosis.
Edward Kennedy was not only one of the most influential politicians, but a true humanitarian which was quite evident through his vast efforts for healthcare amongst many other things.
He is irreplaceable - but whoever takes on his roles... has a very tough job ahead of him/her.
It is hard to fathom that exactly one year ago, Edward Kennedy gave yet another inspirational speech at the DNC. While he seemed fragile and ill, his will seemed as strong as ever.
Edward Kennedy - you will be missed by many, friends and strangers alike.
This past monday, my brother Ayaz and i FINALLY went to a taping of "The Daily Show with Jon Stewart". By FINALLY, i mean that i originally got tickets last year for several months later, but by the time the day came around - the writers were on strike and so it was cancelled. This time, my brother Faraz, got tickets back in February.
The suggested arrival time was around 3:30 PM - we got there around 2 o'clock and there was already a line forming. We stood in line in the heat (thank god for the shaded area we were standing under) for over three hours (doors open for airport like security checkpoints at 5:15 PM). So, if you have tickets and are planning on going - plan on getting there as early as possible.
On a quick sidenote, the sign above the entrance is this: (in case you can't read it - it says "Abandon News All Ye Who Enter Here"
Anyways, getting there at a reasonably early time (2 PM), my brother and I were still #s 16 and 17 in line. Right before they let groups of people enter the security checkpoints, several of the staff members come out to make sure everyone in line has a ticket (and those that don't are sent to the standby area. And as they do that, they give the people in the lines the official tickets (they say that until you get these tickets, there is no guarantee because they run on a first come first serve basis). There are, i believe, 239 seats in the studio.
I was quite dissappointed in the fact that the tickets we got were like, as Ayaz described it, middle school bathroom passes... and not official tickets that we could keep as souvenirs or anything. Here's the picture of mine:
oh and by the way, they are insanely serious about not letting any photography being done inside the studios at any point (before, during, or after the taping)... or chewing gum (or eating/drinking of course). Some of it seemed a little extreme (like the no gum chewing), but whatever. the security team kept saying that if they saw anyone take pictures, they would come around and confiscate the camera until the end of the show AND personally delete all the photos. Oh yeah, phones must be turned off (and not just on vibrate or silent)... and in their words - "no tweetering was allowed". :)
So we finally get in to the studio, and they have the music blasting FOREVER. after the longest time, the warm-up comedian guy comes out.. and he was pretty funny... but it was dragged on and on (even he kept saying "sorry guys, but i can't leave until they give me the signal"). and then FINALLY (after what seemed forever), Jon Stewart comes out to a huge ovation and answers some questions from the crowd (one of the awkward ones was about whether Colbert and Stewart are having a secret affair because they tend to take their vacations together... to which Stewart slyly responds "well, it's not a secret anymore" :). After several of the questions were about Colbert, one guy finally asks Stewart if he personally likes "when people come onto HIS show and ask about Colbert" :).
Personally, i found Stewart to be funnier as he was doing improv before the actual scripted show. Oh and also, when Stewart first came out.. he asked the crowd if everyone had been waiting outside for hours and then added "I'm sorry but it definitely isn't worth it."
Another interesting point to note was the diverse demographic background of the crowd. there were people there not only from across the nation, but across the world - some mentioned were Zimbabwe, Oman, New Zealand, (Berlin) Germany, Kuwait.
This is all i can remember for now, but i'll probably add stuff later if i think of more. But one this is fore sure - I definitely want to go back again... and also to the "The Colbert Report" with Stephan Colbert.
I never, in a million years, would have ever expected this to happen to us - but lightning struck our house this past wednesday! it's one of those things you always hear about... but never think it's going to happen to you or anyone you know.
My mom had been telling me for a few days prior to wednesday that we were supposed to be getting bad thunderstorms on wednesday... and i didn't really take it too seriously cause it never really is.
This time, of course, was different. first, our lights went for a bit with the crazy thunder and lightning. then, just as i was sitting down on the sofa... i hear a loud noise (which was obviously lightening striking something/somewhere really close outside)... so i got right back up. just as i was telling my mom that i am not sitting there, and started to move towards the other sofa - i stopped and said to my mom that i am not sitting over there either because the boiler/utility room is right behind that sofa. LITERALLY right then (i'm not kidding/exaggerating, etc.) lightning struck our boiler room!!!
it was absolutely INSANE! the noise was like no other. then, we could smell smoke and what not.. so we had to call 911 and have the police and firefighters come and check to make sure there was no internal damage.
alhumduillah, everyone was fine - our air conditioning was damaged (because the lightning struck that)... and it's shock was so large that it destroyed my brother's computer altogether along with the router and modem (I HAD NO INTERNET FOR TWO WHOLE DAYS!!) and damaged my parent's computer somewhat.
having no internet was rough at times (but doable, surprisingly) - the no A.C. though was crazy.
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